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Market Overview
Bitcoin is currently testing major resistance levels. Volatility remains high as the monthly close approaches.
Market Overview
Bitcoin is currently testing major resistance levels. Volatility remains high as the monthly close approaches.
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Ethereum Gas Details
Fear & Greed Index
Price (Live)
$0.00
Max Monthly Gain
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Max Monthly Loss
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Historical Win Rate
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Current Peak Status
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BITCOIN MONTHLY RETURN
| YEAR |
|---|
Historical Seasonality & Volatility
Monthly Seasonality
Performance Ranking
Cycle 4 Projection Model
BITCOIN HALVING CYCLES (MONTH 1-48)
Bitcoin Full Issuance Schedule (2009 — 2140)
| Event | Date | Block | Reward | Mined in Period | % Mined | Total Mined | Cycle Top / Bottom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Era | |||||||
| Genesis Cycle | Jan 3, 2009 | 0 | 50 BTC | 10,500,000 | 50% | 10,500,000 | N/A |
| 1st Halving | Nov 28, 2012 | 210,000 | 25 BTC | 5,250,000 | 75% | 15,750,000 | Nov 2013 ($1.1k) / Jan 2015 ($150) |
| 2nd Halving | July 9, 2016 | 420,000 | 12.5 BTC | 2,625,000 | 87.5% | 18,375,000 | Dec 2017 ($19.7k) / Dec 2018 ($3.1k) |
| 3rd Halving | May 11, 2020 | 630,000 | 6.25 BTC | 1,312,500 | 93.75% | 19,687,500 | Nov 2021 ($69k) / Nov 2022 ($15.5k) |
| 4th Halving | Apr 20, 2024 | 840,000 | 3.125 BTC | 656,250 | 96.87% | 20,343,750 | Est. 2025 ($126k*) / Est. 2026 (TBD) |
| Expansion Phase | |||||||
| 5th Halving | Est. 2028 | 1,050,000 | 1.5625 BTC | 328,125 | 98.43% | 20,671,875 | Est. 2029 (TBD) |
| 6th Halving | Est. 2032 | 1,260,000 | 0.7812 BTC | 164,062 | 99.21% | 20,835,937 | Est. 2033 (TBD) |
| 7th Halving | Est. 2036 | 1,470,000 | 0.3906 BTC | 82,031 | 99.60% | 20,917,968 | Est. 2037 (TBD) |
| 8th Halving | Est. 2040 | 1,680,000 | 0.1953 BTC | 41,015 | 99.80% | 20,958,983 | Est. 2041 (TBD) |
| The Satoshi Era (9th - 32nd Halvings) | |||||||
| 10th Halving | Est. 2048 | 2,100,000 | 0.0488 BTC | 10,253 | 99.95% | 20,989,746 | - |
| 20th Halving | Est. 2088 | 4,200,000 | 0.00004 BTC | 10 | 99.99% | 20,999,980 | - |
| Final Issuance | |||||||
| 33rd Halving | Est. 2140 | 6,930,000 | 0.00000001 BTC | 1 Sat | 99.99...% | 20,999,999 | End of Subsidy |
| Post-2140 | Year 2140+ | 6,930,001+ | 0 BTC | 0 | 100% | 21,000,000 | Fees Only |
Systemic Risk & Recovery
Asset Growth Projection
Mathematical Integrity & Methodology
Historical data is aggregated from institutional-grade API providers (Yahoo Finance). Live-streaming data is ingested via Binance WebSockets using the USDT-paired spot market.
To maintain global consistency, all candles and performance metrics are calculated based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time). The daily close occurs at 00:00:00 UTC.
Historical Performance
Calculated using Point-to-Point (P2P) historical close prices from Yahoo Finance.
Live Tracking (*)
Real-time USDT-paired spot price streamed via Binance WebSockets.
Current Peak Status
*PriceATH is the highest recorded closing price in the historical dataset.
Anchor Logic & Data Accuracy
To prevent "opening gaps" and ensure accounting integrity, we utilize the Previous Close Anchor. This ensures that the first second of a new month perfectly aligns with the last second of the previous month. All calculations are performed in UTC.
Logarithmic Toggle: Log scales visualize percentage changes rather than absolute dollar values. This prevents recent large price moves from "flattening" historical data, showing relative growth rates across the entire timeline.
On-Chain Progress Logic
Derived from block height rather than the calendar. Current height polled via REST API (mempool.space).
Accounts for Mining Hashrate Volatility; as hashrate increases, the bar accelerates toward the 2028 supply-shock.
Contrarian Signal Methodology
Alpha Detection triggers at 20th/80th percentiles:
- ≤ 20 (Extreme Fear): Exhaustion in sell-side pressure. Accumulation zones.
- ≥ 80 (Extreme Greed): Parabolic retail interest. Overbought conditions.
Volatility & Sentiment
Calculated as the dispersion of historical monthly returns. Monitors Δ Sentiment over 7-day windows. $| \Delta | > 20$ defines "Abnormal Decay."
QUALITATIVE DATA INTEGRATION
The News Ticker monitors for Black Swan events via CryptoPanic API. This ensures the Sentiment Gauge is interpreted within the context of current global events/regulatory shifts.
SOCIAL SENTIMENT CORRELATION
Measures standard deviation ($> 2\sigma$) of mentions across X, Reddit, and Telegram. High deviation + Extreme Fear = Maximum Pain event, increasing reversal probability.
Heatmap & ROI Philosophy
Monthly Heatmap: Colors mapped to return intensity, using saturation to identify extremes. Golden ROI: A 1,000% threshold highlights "Legendary" cycles, demonstrating Diminishing Returns as the asset matures from Cycle 1 to Cycle 4.
Mathematical Integrity & Methodology
Historical data is aggregated from institutional-grade API providers (Yahoo Finance). Live-streaming data is ingested via Binance WebSockets using the USDT-paired spot market.
To maintain global consistency, all candles and performance metrics are calculated based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time). The daily close occurs at 00:00:00 UTC.
Historical Performance
Calculated using Point-to-Point (P2P) historical close prices from Yahoo Finance.
Live Tracking (*)
Real-time USDT-paired spot price streamed via Binance WebSockets.
Current Peak Status
*PriceATH is the highest recorded closing price in the historical dataset.
Anchor Logic & Data Accuracy
To prevent "opening gaps" and ensure accounting integrity, we utilize the Previous Close Anchor. This ensures that the first second of a new month perfectly aligns with the last second of the previous month. All calculations are performed in UTC.
Logarithmic Toggle: Log scales visualize percentage changes rather than absolute dollar values. This prevents recent large price moves from "flattening" historical data, showing relative growth rates across the entire timeline.
On-Chain Progress Logic
Derived from block height rather than the calendar. Current height polled via REST API (mempool.space).
Accounts for Mining Hashrate Volatility; as hashrate increases, the bar accelerates toward the 2028 supply-shock.
Contrarian Signal Methodology
Alpha Detection triggers at 20th/80th percentiles:
- ≤ 20 (Extreme Fear): Exhaustion in sell-side pressure. Accumulation zones.
- ≥ 80 (Extreme Greed): Parabolic retail interest. Overbought conditions.
Volatility & Sentiment
Calculated as the dispersion of historical monthly returns. Monitors Δ Sentiment over 7-day windows. $| \Delta | > 20$ defines "Abnormal Decay."
QUALITATIVE DATA INTEGRATION
The News Ticker monitors for Black Swan events via CryptoPanic API. This ensures the Sentiment Gauge is interpreted within the context of current global events/regulatory shifts.
SOCIAL SENTIMENT CORRELATION
Measures standard deviation ($> 2\sigma$) of mentions across X, Reddit, and Telegram. High deviation + Extreme Fear = Maximum Pain event, increasing reversal probability.
Heatmap & ROI Philosophy
Monthly Heatmap: Colors mapped to return intensity, using saturation to identify extremes. Golden ROI: A 1,000% threshold highlights "Legendary" cycles, demonstrating Diminishing Returns as the asset matures from Cycle 1 to Cycle 4.
⚠️ Institutional Risk Disclosure
The metrics provided herein are for informational and educational purposes only. Digital assets are subject to high market volatility. Past performance, including "Golden ROI" cycles, is not indicative of future results. The "Alpha Detection" signals are mathematical probabilities based on historical patterns and do not constitute financial advice.
ALPHA DETECTION THRESHOLDS
Mathematical Integrity & Methodology
Historical data is aggregated from institutional-grade API providers (Yahoo Finance). Live-streaming data is ingested via Binance WebSockets using the USDT-paired spot market.
To maintain global consistency, all candles and performance metrics are calculated based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time). The daily close occurs at 00:00:00 UTC.
Historical Performance
Calculated using Point-to-Point (P2P) historical close prices from Yahoo Finance.
Live Tracking (*)
Real-time USDT-paired spot price streamed via Binance WebSockets.
Current Peak Status
*PriceATH is the highest recorded closing price in the historical dataset.
Anchor Logic & Data Accuracy
To prevent "opening gaps" and ensure accounting integrity, we utilize the Previous Close Anchor. This ensures that the first second of a new month perfectly aligns with the last second of the previous month. All calculations are performed in UTC.
Logarithmic Toggle: Log scales visualize percentage changes rather than absolute dollar values. This prevents recent large price moves from "flattening" historical data, showing relative growth rates across the entire timeline.
On-Chain Progress Logic
Derived from block height rather than the calendar. Current height polled via REST API (mempool.space).
Accounts for Mining Hashrate Volatility; as hashrate increases, the bar accelerates toward the 2028 supply-shock.
Contrarian Signal Methodology
Alpha Detection triggers at 20th/80th percentiles:
- ≤ 20 (Extreme Fear): Exhaustion in sell-side pressure. Accumulation zones.
- ≥ 80 (Extreme Greed): Parabolic retail interest. Overbought conditions.
Volatility & Sentiment
Calculated as the dispersion of historical monthly returns. Monitors Δ Sentiment over 7-day windows. $| \Delta | > 20$ defines "Abnormal Decay."
QUALITATIVE DATA INTEGRATION
The News Ticker monitors for Black Swan events via CryptoPanic API. This ensures the Sentiment Gauge is interpreted within the context of current global events/regulatory shifts.
SOCIAL SENTIMENT CORRELATION
Measures standard deviation ($> 2\sigma$) of mentions across X, Reddit, and Telegram. High deviation + Extreme Fear = Maximum Pain event, increasing reversal probability.
Heatmap & ROI Philosophy
Monthly Heatmap: Colors mapped to return intensity, using saturation to identify extremes. Golden ROI: A 1,000% threshold highlights "Legendary" cycles, demonstrating Diminishing Returns as the asset matures from Cycle 1 to Cycle 4.
⚠️ Institutional Risk Disclosure
The metrics provided herein are for informational and educational purposes only. Digital assets are subject to high market volatility. Past performance, including "Golden ROI" cycles, is not indicative of future results. The "Alpha Detection" signals are mathematical probabilities based on historical patterns and do not constitute financial advice.